The Monetary Map Analysis of EU new memb

日期: 2021-07-15      点击数:

作者:Shen Hao/ Wang Dan
Abstract:Under the framework of OCA (Optimal Currency Area), together with traditional gravity model and convergence criteria of Maastricht Treaty, we analyze the economic convergence level between EU new member countries and original EU 12 using monetary map analysis. It indicates that which country has made good preparation and may enter into the Monetary Union first, while some other countries have to make more efforts. This paper discusses ten new member countries’ cost of the entry according to three different methods, selecting five variables, that is, distances between capitals, GDP, coefficient of the growth rate of GDP between candidate country and Monetary Union, coefficient of CPI, and long-term interest rate. It is concluded that Hungary , Slovenia , Slovak and Czech may enter into the Monetary Union first, while Latvia and Lithuanian need more efforts.